The Climate Hazards Center is proud to announce that our article, “Examining the role of unusually warm Indo-Pacific sea-surface temperatures in recent African droughts,” has been published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS). After careful analysis, we propose that strong El Niños may be followed by warm western Pacific SST conditions, which can lead to circumstances that are highly conducive with consecutive, potentially predictable droughts in SA DJF, EA OND, and EA MAM. This article demonstrates the relationship between different regions of warm SST and recent droughts, ultimately concluding that the extreme Niño 3.4 and west Pacific SST events responsible for 2015-2017 droughts are likely to reoccur. In order to respond in a timely manner to such events, it is not only essential that humanitarian agencies prepare to respond to multi-year drought and significant food insecurity in SA and EA, but also that organizations like CHC and partners continue to monitor and predict drought events. By continuing to make early predictions, CHC will strive to protect the most susceptible regions, thus saving lives and securing livelihoods. To read the full article, please follow this link to RMetS website: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3266
Read the article here.